Without that revenue, CRFB projects the national debt will climb to 125% of GDP—or roughly $58 trillion—by fiscal year 2036, compared to a baseline projection of $56 trillion, or 120% of GDP, that assumed the IEEPA tariffs would remain in force. “Deficits in that scenario will rise to 7.1% of GDP, or $3.3 trillion,” CRFB warned, versus $3.1 trillion under the original baseline.
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